The 1,064-day and 364-day cycles that have governed every major Bitcoin move — and what they say is coming next.
Beneath the headlines, the regulatory noise, the influencer calls, and the panic — two interlocking price cycles have governed Bitcoin's behavior since its first tradeable year. Every major bull run. Every bear market bottom. Every intermediate peak of significance.
The 1,064-day macro cycle defines the arc from one bear market bottom to the next. The 364-day sub-cycle governs the rhythm of price action within that arc. Together, they form a structural framework that has called Bitcoin's most important turning points with a precision that no halving narrative, no on-chain metric, and no macro model has matched alone.
This is not a halving narrative. The halving is mechanical — tied to supply issuance, priced in years in advance. The 1064/364 framework is behavioral. It emerges from the psychology of capital cycles, the exhaustion of speculative excess, and the predictable rhythm of institutional accumulation. It is a different thing entirely.
The framework is also falsifiable — which is how you know it's real. Every cycle deviation is documented. Every case where the pattern held imperfectly is explained. The framework that can account for its own failures is the framework worth studying.
The 1064-day cycle has been validated across three complete macro cycles. Here is the record — not cherry-picked callouts, but every cycle bottom, measured against the projection:
| Cycle | Projected Bottom | Actual Bottom | Variance | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle I → II | Oct 15, 2014 | Jan 14, 2015 | +89 days | Gox anomaly* |
| Cycle II → III | Dec 14, 2018 | Dec 15, 2018 | +1 day | ±1 Day |
| Cycle III → IV | Dec 9, 2022 | Nov 21, 2022 | −18 days | FTX shock† |
| Cycle IV → V | Projected range: [full edition] | — | Current cycle | |
* Cycle I deviation explained by Mt. Gox collapse (February 2014), an external shock that extended the cycle. The Deviation Playbook documents exactly how this was identifiable in real time. † FTX collapse compressed the Cycle III bottom by 18 days. The framework classifies this as a Compression deviation, not an Invalidation — the distinction is explained in detail.
The Bitcoin Prospectus is a single, unified research document — seven sections that build on each other from first principles to operational framework. No filler. No padding. Every section earns its place.
The core thesis stated plainly: what the 1064/364 framework is, what it isn't, and what the historical record shows. Readable in 10 minutes.
Precise mathematical definitions of both cycles — origin methodology, anchor logic, derivation tables, and the harmonic relationship that generates confluence signals.
Every complete Bitcoin cycle mapped against both frameworks. Projected dates vs. actual turning points measured precisely. The evidentiary core of the document.
Written to the standard of institutional research. Investment thesis, six named risk factors, and base/bull/bear scenario modeling with percentage-range projections.
Three full case studies: the Gox extension, the COVID mid-cycle crash, the FTX compression. Real-time identification signals for each — so you know the difference between a broken cycle and a delayed one.
MVRV-Z, NUPL, Puell Multiple, RHODL Ratio, and LTH Supply — all with historical thresholds and a dual-confirmation scoring system integrated with cycle position.
Four phase-specific decision trees covering accumulation, early markup, late markup & distribution, and markdown. Plus a numerical confluence scoring system — the November 2022 FTX low scored 9 out of 10; the March 2020 COVID crash scored 3.
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This is not for people looking for hot tips, price targets, or someone to tell them what to buy. The Bitcoin Prospectus is a framework, not a service. It does the thinking; you make the decisions.
You can find opinions for free. You can find charts for free. What you cannot find for free is three years of synthesis compressed into a unified, cross-validated framework — written to the standard of institutional research and structured so you can actually use it at each phase of the cycle. At $97, this is priced to be accessible. The alternative is spending weeks assembling this yourself, and still not having the Deviation Playbook or the confluence scoring system.
Then this document will help you identify that it has failed — and why — faster than anything else. Section V, The Deviation Playbook, exists precisely for this reason. A framework that can only succeed is not a framework. This one includes explicit invalidation criteria: the conditions under which the 1064-day cycle should be considered broken, not delayed. You will know the difference before most people do.
No. Explicitly and emphatically: no. The Bitcoin Prospectus is a research document and analytical framework. Nothing in it constitutes investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. The Entry/Exit Framework in Section VII presents historical decision architectures, not personal recommendations. You are responsible for your own capital. Full disclaimer included in every document.
The halving cycle is 1,458 days. The 1064-day cycle is 1,064 days. They are not the same framework, do not make the same predictions, and do not identify the same turning points. More importantly: the halving is mechanical, supply-side, and known to every market participant. The 1064/364 framework is behavioral and is not widely used. Its edge, to the extent it has one, comes precisely from that.
Seven sections. One complete framework. The clearest structural lens on Bitcoin's price architecture available anywhere.
The Bitcoin Prospectus is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. All cycle projections are probabilistic frameworks based on historical analysis and are not guarantees of future results. Bitcoin and all digital assets involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance of any analytical framework does not guarantee future accuracy. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.